Farhang Morady explains the geopolitical context of the escalating Israel-Iran conflict against the background of the genocide in Gaza. He argues that Iran’s retaliation to Israel’s deadly attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus was also motivated by the Iranian regime’s own power dynamics.
The relationship between Iran and Israel has been strained since the Iranian Revolution in 1979. Recent events have only added to the complexity of the situation. On April 1st, missiles launched by Israel hit the Iranian consulate in Damascus, and resulted in the deaths of several people, including a high-ranking Islamic Revolutionary Corps (IRGC) commander. In response, Iran attacked Israel on April 13th with over 300 missiles and drones. This was the first time Iran had ever launched such an attack. With over 40% of the world’s crude oil trade passing through the Persian Gulf region, such political instability could have significant implications for the global economy.
Israel plays a crucial role in managing potential threats due to its intertwined economic and geopolitical interests with Western powers. Hence, it has developed a formidable military force, with support from Western nations, to safeguard its security. Nevertheless, the recent assault carried out by Hamas on October 7th, 2023, followed by another one by Iran, has brought to light weaknesses in Israel’s security infrastructure. Additionally, Israel’s brutal war in Gaza has not produced its desired outcomes, even after seven months. Consequently, Israel and its Western partners are grappling with significant obstacles on the global front.
These events have challenged the notion of Israel’s invincibility and highlighted Iran’s military strength, which has significant geopolitical implications. Iran’s growinginfluence has changed the balance of power in the region, putting it at the centre of a complex power struggle with other regional players, such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Israel. This regional rivalry is part of a larger dynamic involving global powers, including the declining power of the US in the region after their withdrawal from Afghanistan and Iraq in 2021 and their indirect involvement in the Ukraine war. Moreover, emerging competitors to Western interests, such as China and Russia,have further complicated the geopolitical landscape, particularly for the US.
Pre-Revolution
Following World War II, the US considered Iran and Israel as crucial players in defending their interests in the Middle East, due to their strategic location and resources. With the increasing influence of the Soviet Union, especially among Iranian radicals, the struggle of Palestinians against the Zionist state was seen as key in the fight against imperialist aggressors. As a result, many Iranians, including secular nationalists, religious zealots, and Marxists, were trained by groups such as the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) and Amal, a Shia political movement established during the Lebanese Civil War in 1973. Mostafa Chamran, who later became a member of parliament and the Supreme Council of National Defense, was one of the Iranian political activists who spent time at the Amal military camp.
The Shah of Iran gained power through a coup organised by Britain and the US in 1953. However, he faced significant political pressure throughout his reign from both secular and religious radical factions. To counter this, the Shah collaborated with conservative religious groups and organisations, and adopted a dictatorial approach to suppress any criticism of his regime.
The Shah was aware that a significant number of Iranians supported the Palestinian cause. Therefore, he was cautious in his interactions with Israel. Despite this, Iran and Israel had a secret partnership, including a permanent diplomatic mission in Tehran. The alliance was based on mutual geopolitical interests, such as countering the spread of Arab nationalism and Soviet Communism. And, with support from the US, Iran and Israel aimed to establish themselves as dominant regional powers, strengthening their military to fend off potential threats from the Soviet Union and neighbouring Arab nations. In exchange for their support, both nations ensured the security of the West’s interests in the area.
However, the 1979 Iranian Revolution marked a pivotal moment in the country’s history, with far-reaching consequences for the region’s geopolitical landscape. Driven by a complex mix of factors, including radicalism, Islamism, nationalism, and anti-imperialism, the revolution was a response to decades of foreign intervention by global powers, particularly Britain and the US. The movement was opposed to Western support for the Shah, and critical political issues for the revolutionaries were Israel and the Palestinian cause.
The US viewed the Iranian Revolution as a serious threat to oil production and to the global oil markets. As a result, they used various tactics to counter Iran’s influence, including supporting Iraq during the 8-year war with Iran, threatening invasion, and imposing economic sanctions. Despite these efforts, Iran has continued to expand its influence in the Middle East, with its sights set on becoming a regional power and a leading voice in the Third World.
In response to pressure from the revolutionary movement, the new Iranian regime quickly changed what had been the Shah’s regional policy. It broke off relations with Israel and recognised the PLO. The Islamic Republic of Iran formed alliances with radical states and movements regardless of their ideology, such as Cuba and Venezuela. Later, they worked with China and Russia to challenge Western regional domination.
US Policies Failures and Iran’s Emergence
Two significant occurrences boosted the geopolitical standing of the Islamic Republic. The conclusion of the Cold War had a profound ideological impact on Iran and neighbouring areas, while the American incursion into Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003 saw the removal of Iran’s long-standing foe, Saddam Hussein. The emergence of a new Iraqi government created a crucial ally for Iran in the region.
In 2010, the Arab Spring led to uprisings in the Middle East, causing a conflict between Saudi Arabia and Yemen. The US supported Saudi Arabia in its efforts to help Ali Abdullah Saleh, while an opposition group led by the Houthis emerged seeking assistance from Iran as the conflict escalated. During the Syrian Civil War in 2011, Iran backed Bashar al-Assad, which allowed it to expand its military presence beyond its borders and establish a security buffer.
In response to the ongoing threat from Western powers and the eight-year war with Iraq, Iran decided to restart its nuclear program as a means of deterrence. Additionally, Iran implemented a policy of strategic patience to address the challenges posed by global and regional powers. As a result of the ongoing global sanctions, Iran was compelled to develop its domestic military industry, which led to the creation of missiles – missiles which were used in the recent attacks against Israel.
Iran has steadily established itself as a major player in the Middle East, exerting its influence over countries such as Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, and even Palestine’s Sunni Hamas, which is closely connected to the Muslim Brotherhood organisation of Egypt.
Iran’s intent to form alliances with other Middle Eastern nations was not mainly about liberating oppressed nations within the region. Instead, it was driven by a combination of political factors and the actions of Western and regional powers towards countries like Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine. Additionally, Iran’s isolation, imposition of sanctions, and the looming threat of invasion pushed it to seek an alternative approach to withstand Western influence and assert its dominance within the region.
War on Gaza and its consequences
On the 7th of October 2024, Hamas launched an attack on southern Israel that had far-reaching consequences for the Western world as well as for Israel. Although Iran did not participate directly, it provided support to Hamas. The Israeli military’s genocide in Gaza in which over 40,000 people have been killed, including thousands of children, and many thousands more wounded, has prompted widespread condemnation and triggered massive protests around the world. Despite this, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has remained steadfast in his determination to eradicate Hamas, regardless of the human cost.
Western military and financial support, especially from the US, for the ongoing genocide has turned the region into a ticking time bomb. It has galvanized widespread solidarity for the Palestinians, putting Arab leaders under immense political pressure. Internally, Israel’s economy shrank by almost 20% in the last quarter of 2023. By the end of 2023, around 500,000 Israelis had left the country. To address this issue, the government has started drafting ultra-orthodox Jews who were previously exempt from military service. Reports suggest that roughly 60,000 Israeli citizens, who had previously fled their homes in towns, cities, and kibbutzim along the Lebanese border, are now hesitant to return. There has been a surge of anger against the war, with tens of thousands of Israeli citizens taking to the streets to demand early elections and a change in leadership. They are also calling for a trial for Netanyahu, who is currently facing corruption charges.
Under mounting political pressure both domestically and internationally, Netanyahu attempted to escalate the ongoing conflict by seeking greater direct involvement of the US.
Escalating the War
On 1st of April, Israel launched an airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria. This resulted in the deaths of 18 Iranians, including Major General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a military commander, and six other Iranian nationals, one of whom was a general.
The US response was immediate, as expected. Biden stated, “Our commitment to Israel’s security against Iran and its proxies is unwavering.” However, privately, he understood that Israeli retaliation would increase the likelihood of a more significant – conflict that could involve the US. Additionally, the differences between the Biden administration and Israel could negatively impact Biden’s chances of winning the November election. Despite the considerable financial and military support that Israel has received from the US since its establishment in 1948, the regional powers, including Turkey, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, are working to redefine the region in response to the declining influence of the US in the Middle East.
In addition to domestic considerations, Netanyahu’s strategy focused on maintaining Israel’s military dominance in the region and safeguarding its existence. The overarching objective was to prevent Iran from gaining a foothold as a dominant player in the Middle East. While certain Arab nations openly denounced the attack on Iran’s diplomatic outpost in Damascus, privately, they acknowledged that a weakened Iran would benefit their interests.
Tit-for-tat
Iran was reluctant to engage in an all-out war but considered an attack in Damascus a significant violation of an important threshold. The Iranian government raised the issue with UN authorities. However, when a resolution was presented to the Security Council to address the issue, the US, Britain, and France vetoed it. This left Iran feeling compelled to respond. If they had chosen not to, it would have sent a signal to Israel that they could continue to attack Iranian sites in Syria or other regions without facing consequences.
On April 13th, 2024, Iran launched a major missile and drone attack directly against Israel. Over 300 missiles and drones were fired from different locations in Syria. Iran warned the Western powers and the regional countries of their actions. Despite receiving security and military support from the US, Britain, France, Jordan, and other Arab states, some of the Iranian missiles landed in Israeli army bases. Iran demonstrated its military capabilities not only to Israel but also to its regional rivals and Western nations. This escalation of tensions raised concerns among Western leaders, who have urged Israel to avoid significant retaliation.
Iran and Israel are no longer wholly dependent on great powers. They are striving to establish themselves as independent centers of power within the context of imperialist rivalry. This is evident in the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, which highlight the declining role of the US and the increasing influence of regional powers.
Furthermore, the Iranian government has turned to nationalism as a strategy for tackling its own major economic and political woes, such as high inflation, currency devaluation, and unemployment. However, this approach may backfire and reduce the government’s credibility. To shift the blame for internal struggles, the regime may resort to using the threat of war and external enemies.
Over the years, Iran has experienced numerous protests, including the “Woman, Life, Freedom!” movement in 2022.Despite facing brutal repression from authorities, the resistance movement persists, with many Iranians calling for a change in the country’s authoritarian leadership. The Islamic Republic is apprehensive that the next uprising may trigger a revolution similar to the one that toppled the monarchy in late 1979.
Farhang Morady, teaches International Development at the University of Westminster in London. He is the author of Contemporary Iran: Politics, Economy, Religion (Policy Press, 2020)
